Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
